Near — Orbit

The ISS remains the only permanently crewed microgravity laboratory, enabling research in materials science, fluid dynamics, and human physiology that is impossible on Earth. Furthermore, NEO serves as the assembly point for deep-space missions (e.g., Lunar Gateway). 4. Emerging Threats and Congestion The very attributes that make NEO valuable also render it fragile. Three major threats have emerged:

With 8,000+ active satellites, the number of “close approach” warnings (conjunctions) has exceeded 4,000 per day. The current notification system, operated by the U.S. Space Force’s 18th Space Control Squadron, is advisory only. There is no global authority to force collision avoidance maneuvers, leading to “negotiation by email” and, in a 2019 case, a near-miss between Starlink and ESA’s Aeolus satellite. near orbit

Starlink and similar constellations now provide sub-30ms latency broadband to over 80 countries. Unlike GEO satellites (600ms latency), NEO constellations enable real-time video conferencing, telemedicine, and high-frequency trading. The ISS remains the only permanently crewed microgravity

NEO’s proximity allows for sub-meter resolution imaging. Commercial firms (Maxar, Planet Labs) deliver daily revisits of any point on Earth, supporting precision agriculture, disaster response (e.g., wildfire and flood mapping), and climate monitoring. Emerging Threats and Congestion The very attributes that

NASA estimates there are over 500,000 pieces of debris between 1–10 cm in NEO, and 100 million particles smaller than 1 cm. Traveling at ~7.8 km/s, a 1 cm fragment carries the kinetic energy of a hand grenade. The 2009 Iridium-Cosmos collision and the 2021 Russian ASAT test each generated tens of thousands of new trackable fragments. In a worst-case cascade (Kessler Syndrome), debris collisions would generate more debris, rendering entire orbital bands unusable for decades.

As megaconstellations age and are de-orbited, hundreds of satellites will re-enter the atmosphere annually. While most burn up, a 2023 study found a 10% annual probability of a surviving 25+ kg fragment landing in a populated area. Furthermore, the injection of aluminum oxides from burning satellites could catalyze stratospheric ozone depletion – a poorly understood externality. 5. Policy and Technical Solutions Addressing these threats requires a dual approach:

Active Debris Removal (ADR) – using harpoons, nets, or magnetic tethering to de-orbit large derelict objects – is technically feasible but commercially unattractive. The European Space Agency’s ClearSpace-1 mission (planned for 2027) represents the first dedicated ADR mission. However, at an estimated cost of $150 million per large object, a public-good funding mechanism is necessary.